Harris Falls Flat: Even Among Key Constituencies, She Lost

Running against a deeply flawed candidate like Donald Trump, it was the Democrats’ race to lose, and they did. The Republicans won the presidency, regained control of the Senate, and gained seats in the House, although it is still undecided who will hold the majority. Here are a few take aways from the presidential election of 2024.

1. Power of the Rural Vote

More people showed up to vote in rural areas. Trump’s support grew stronger from 2020. Larger turnout in rural areas, traditionally Republican strongholds, placed more pressure on cities to come out for Harris.

2. Harris received less support in cities.

Cities, traditionally Democratic strongholds, did not come out in as large numbers for Harris as was expected. State College, the university town in the coveted swing state of Pennsylvania that Harris probably expected to win, was indicative of a changing electorate. It went for Trump.

3. Hispanics voted in greater number for Republicans.

Stories of bussing Hispanics to turn the country blue turned not to be true. Hispanics voted in greater numbers for Trump. Harris lost share of the Hispanic vote. Even Hispanics, apparently, have had enough and voted in favor of closing the border and deporting illegal immigrants.

4. It’s the economy, stupid.

Americans chose to overlook a candidate’s personal flaws to vote with their pocket books. People just don’t feel better today than they did four years ago.

5. There wasn’t a competitive primary race.

The Democrats blew it by not having a competitive primary. The Republican Party at one time had ten primary challengers vying for the presidential ticket. The Democrats, by contrast, held no primary debates. If they had, the gravity of Biden’s age would have been apparent much sooner. Videos of President Biden’s disorientation began circulating across the internet months before his official nomination.

By holding on to power rather than providing a choice to the electorate, Biden and his circle overestimated their support and chose to ignore the problems his age would have on an intellectually and physically challenging race like the presidency. When his candidacy fell apart, Harris was pushed through as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention. Had the Democrats held a competitive primary, voters with intimate knowledge of their local landscape would have had input on who had the best chance of winning the national seat.

6. Poor pick of a vice-presidential candidate.

Tim Walz did not perform well in the vice-presidential debate and did not sufficiently differentiate himself from JD Vance. Walz was too self-deprecating on the campaign trail, even calling himself a “knucklehead.” Trump, by contrast, presented himself as the savior for America’s ills. Americans looked for a strong leader. They didn’t see it in Harris, and Walz didn’t pick up the slack. Would Josh Shapiro have done better as a vice-presidential candidate? This looks increasingly likely.

7. The people that came out to vote in large numbers this election cycle went for Trump, not Harris.

Harris’ larger ground campaign in swing states did not produce the results she thought they would. Not only did Harris lose ground to Hispanics, but she also lost ground to women voters compared to Biden four years ago. This was unexpected.

8. The power of campaigning in between election years.

Trump didn’t let his name dim from the spotlight after he lost the 2020 election. He continued to reach out to voters in rallies across the country and right-wing podcasts continued to defend Trump and call into question 2020 election results. Over the interceding four years, Trump and his surrogates built relationships with disenfranchised voters. Harris, by contrast, campaigned for only 107 days and what people saw, they didn’t like.

9. Running against Trump rather than on issues.

Harris underestimated people’s frustration with the border, the economy, and opposition to woke ideology. This meant more to voters than Trump’s flawed character or protecting the right to abortion.

10. The Democratic Party has moved too far to the left for most Americans.

If they do not re-evaluate their positions, the Democratic Party will continue to lose votes not only in the battleground states, but in cities, with Hispanics, and with women voters- votes which they had taken for granted and overestimated this election cycle.

In short, Trump won the coveted seat Republican giants like Mitt Romney and John McCain couldn’t. It is an astounding defeat or an astounding victory, depending on how you look at it.

Find the latest results for statewide elections here.

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