The power referred to is our electrical power we depend upon for heating, cooling, cooking and running our appliances that preserve our food and make things convenient like your morning cup of coffee or tea. The current drought forecast for May through August from NOAA is for persistent drought over the North Cascades due to low snowpack and developing drought over the rest of the state.

The reason for concern is due to our power balance or availability of firm power. As of 2023, 86% of our power is hydroelectric power with the rest of the power produced by wind, solar and biomass. This means that hydropower is the only firm power source. (Firm power is power that can be dispatched on demand; wind, and solar is not firm power because they are dependent upon availability of wind or sun.)  The problem we face with hydropower is the water supply due to drought may be too low to provide adequate electrical power by August and September.  We face the potential for rolling blackouts and brown outs as power demand must be adjusted to meet power supply.

The reason for this situation is not the potential lack of firm power but the fact that utilization of coal or natural gas sources are illegal in Washington state due to climate change policies. Washington state has required the dismantling of existing coal plants and shutting down our co-generation natural gas plants creating a shortfall of back up firm power supply needed to offset supply shortfalls like we face. Our PUD’s and co-operative utilities cannot buy natural gas or coal power out of state because they are dirty sources of power and are not permitted. Consequences of doing so would be blocked or be cause for state intervention through fines.  

Since 14% of our power is invested in alternative power sources, they are not adequate to compensate for any shortfall from hydropower. On average, about 33% of this capacity is usable due to wind variability and of course sun doesn’t shine at night. A means of ramping up the productivity of wind or solar is not possible.

Potential impacts include personal survivability, ability to work which can reduce household income, and impacts on agriculture and our ability to provide food products. Limited water and power mean the rationing of water and since most agricultural land in Washington is irrigated, there will be intermittent power for irrigation pumps.

What does one do if we face such a problem, particularly if it extends into the winter months? The first thing, on a personal level, is to consider what other sources of energy you can use to cook food, have running water if you own a well and keep warm. Invest in a home generator.  Advocate for energy diversity where all forms of energy are on the table. One never goes on an extended backpack without covering all your bases from bears, food, clothing for warmth to back country medicine. This is true with the rest of life and the ability to face weather. Most important is to advocate so that our governor will realize we have an energy emergency and suspend the climate change regulations that prevent access to a variety of energy sources to get us through this phase.

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3 Comments

  1. This is a solved problem. Utilities use industrial battery installations to store power from renewables so that it’s available at night if the wind isn’t blowing. Many companies are also looking into other forms of storage, such as production of hydrogen.

    What we need is more solar, wind, and other clean sources of power production. Storage solutions are already in heavy use globally and will just continue to improve over time.

    1. I did forget about Tesla’s power wall battery storage pack that provides an extended source of power when power shuts off or weather severs you contact with the grid. It appears robust enough to last for a while, but the information I have for it doesn’t give performance specs.

      1. The Atlantic recently wrote a piece about electricity and clean energy. The technology is there but the power grid is stuck in a 20th century business model. Here’s an excerpt: “Many utilities, however, won’t prioritize installing batteries, and they won’t invest in solutions that let consumers do more with less energy. That’s because these programs lower utilities’ capital expenditures, which lowers the rates they charge consumers and, in turn, their profits. If utilities don’t get paid for innovating, they’re unlikely to do it.” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/05/climate-change-investment-utilities/678455/

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